Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Market Timing Update (10/19/10 Close)

[710pm stock futures]
Regarding the fourth wave corrective count, leave room for a lower low as indicated on these charts. It may not be required (as the squiggles during the PM sell-off is ambiguous) or even truncation. [The motive wave down count is also ambiguous at the moment).

[620pm DX and Euro]
Ideally, both could use some additional confirmation.
[4pm stocks] The [250pm] entry remains applicable. Monitor COMPQ to see if it breaks the proposed wave i high of 2402.42 to offer initial confirmation of a trend change. The current decline from the high is probably the deepest since the late August low.

Before that happens, the working assumption is that a fourth wave correction is in progress which may be complete at today's low. The deep pullback found support around MA20 and the classical EW channel line this afternoon. The decline so far counts as a zigzag in the cash index and a 7-wave three in ES.

The following charts offer an update.

[250pm stocks] Likely a fourth wave as proposed over the past few days.