Monday, October 11, 2010

Market Timing Update (10/11/10 Close)

[4PM stocks, vix, dx] Odds favor one more squiggle high in stocks. Any opening up-gap is likely to be filled sooner rather than later.

Under the minor 2-up interpretation (bearish), the market is at the final stage of wave (v) of [c] of 2. For this wave (v), the working primary count is a regular five in the RUT and an ED in SPX/INDU as well as COMPQ/NDX. See charts below.


Today's collapse in the VIX has dutifully fulfilled the under-throw of the proposed ED. While the VIX is in all likelihood very fundamentally mis-priced, the formation of the five-month long ED is beautiful in its own way. In this sense, one should not be surprised if stocks choose to top today and not deliver one more squiggle high.

Barring a truncated fifth wave as indicated on the chart to the right, odds favor a small degree fourth wave being in progress in the USD index. This fourth wave could be done at last Friday's high or could be still tracing out a flat or a triangle or some complex correction. Please refer to Chart1 and Chart 2 in Dollar Bottoming and Risk Assets Topping (10/8/10) for the larger picture count in DX.