Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Market Timing Update (11/30/11)

[9pm] Maximum Confusion, for entertainment purposes only at the moment -
A bullish triangle (green, contracting) and a bearish triangle (blue, expanding) for maximum confusion (whipsaw). Note that the July high likely holds for the bearish-blue triangle, but new highs likely for the bullish-green triangle. Waves for thought.

[EOD] Stocks -
See 330pm entry below - with this updated chart.

[330pm] Stocks -
Today's surge is a "small-degree" 3rd wave or a C wave. Here's how it might fit into the larger count.

bullish (blue) - to push above the Oct. high to at least complete a counter trend rebound against a visual five-down from the Apr/May top ... with potential to be part of a larger 3rd wave to new highs.

bearish -
(a - purple main) to complete wave D-up of an ED-type wave (C)-down, likely to below the Oct low. Rising above the Nov high invalidates.

(b - purple alt) to complete wave [ii] rebound against the decline from the mid-Nov orthodox rebound top. Rising above the Nov high invalidates.

(c - red) to complete wave X-up of (Y)-down, likely to below the Oct low.  Rising above the Oct high invalidates.

[730am] ES update -
Month End. The pre-market surge pushed ES to its 50D-MA. The pre-market surge is likely wave (v)-up (end of [i]-up) or wave [iii]/C-up based on squiggles.