Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Market Timing Update (11/29/11)

[EOD] Stocks -
ES triangle broke downward in AH trading (Chart 1). Chart 2 updates tracking counts on SPX.

[320pm] ES triangle update -
Let's see if it is a bearish or bullish triangle or not even a triangle.

[110pm] SPX, Transports update -
"1/4" overlap at various degrees in TRAN, but not in SPX - bullish on balance.  However, leave room for a five-down in SPX (red as marked) and an LD-down in TRAN, under the bearish interpretation.

[655am] DAX, ES update -

DAX/CAC (and to a lesser extent FTSE) experienced major overlap which eliminates the rebound being a 4th wave at any degree. Thus, odds continue to shift towards bullish counts for European benchmarks.

Both DAX and ES are now at the upper channel resistance. Reaction here will be telling.
In addition, ES is approaching is 50D MA  - see big picture chart to the right.
ES has 7 waves up from the nominal low. Bullish count in blue. Added the purple count to accommodate the rebound being a 4th wave at an even higher degree.

Unlike stocks, no higher high in Gold, nor in Oil.