Sunday, November 27, 2011

Market Timing Update (11/28/11)

[EOD]Stocks -
Based on ES, the surge from its low is a visual five-up (Chart 1, blue), although a zigzag wave [iv] may just ended at the 0.382 fib if ES experienced a truncation (Chart 1, red) which is not unreasonable given the shortened Thanksgiving sessions.

Based on SPX, the decline from today's high is not conclusively actionary (Chart 2, blue), although it could very well be (Chart 2, red).

Based on Transports, the decline from the most recent nominal high is 7 waves (Chart 3, and 1040am entry) - unless a pretty extended 3rd wave (Chart 3 red) is in play.

On balance, odds favor the bullish count, with at least one more push higher, and perhaps with potential to eventually surpass the Oct high.

For the very near term, the decline from today's high could use another leg down, as C-down of a corrective structure or (iii)-down if today's high is indeed a wave [iv] top.

The bearish possibility of a wave [iv] top is more easily seen in the wave structure of GOLD (Chart 4).

[1040am]Transports and INDU update -
Wave structure in transports (Chart 1) favor the bullish view (purple or black)given that there are 7 waves down from the most recent nominal high - unless a pretty extended 3rd wave (red) is in play.

[7am] ES bear count revision -
Bumping the the rebound one degree higher by employing a truncated fifth - better form - as another possibility. Bull count is unchanged. See the 620am entry for more.
[Nov 28, 620am] DAX and ES update -
DAX / FTSE - nice-looking ABC November decline , look for 1/4 overlap for confirmation.
ES - A visual five-up in place at the moment. See Sunday night update (below) for discussion.

[Nov 27, 930pm] ES update -

It's amazing sometimes how waves eventually unfold and clarify themselves. See Chart.

If BOTH the large triangle and the small triangle as marked are valid, odds now favor the bullish count (BLUE, i.e. moving at least above the Oct high).

If only the small triangle as marked is valid, the tug of war between the bulls and the bears continues and odds favor at least one more low (RED and Alt-Blue).

Note that the Sunday night gap up has at the moment stalled at the implied (ii)-(iv) channel line. We'll see what transpires overnight.

P.S.  With the Sunday night's gap up in stocks, there is, at the moment, no breakdown in EURUSD, no breakout in DX, no breakout in U.S. bonds,  all at the brink of doing so.