Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Market Timing Update (11/16/11)

[EOD] Stocks -
Transports continue to offer some clarification of the wave structure (see the 125pm entry). Chart 1 updates and shows that the sell-off into the close is either the start of the next swing down (red, bearish) or a small degree [ii]-down of 5-up (blue, bullish).  In the bullish case, blue-3 is shorter than blue-1.  Thus, if blue-5 should be capped (solid green line) if not already topped.

Chart 2 updates the various tracking counts on INDU.  Note that the much discussed triangle survives as of today.

Chart 3 (right) illustrates some bullish squiggles.  The point is that price actions are not necessarily bearish, but it's prudent to leave ample room for (much) deeper declines.  The Nov 9th low is a key marker.

[125pm] Transports update -
The "clearer" structure in transports may help clear a few waves. Map it into SPX if one wants to do so. The red B to the right of the chart should read X to pair with the red W.

[955am] INDU update -
End of a larger triangle (blue)? post-triangle thrust of a smaller triangle (red)? or None of the above (purple)? - see Chart 1. Squiggle count in Chart 2.

[710am] DAX, ES update -
There are too many potential triangles. It's prudent to leave room for further declines, as [c]/[y]/(iii)-down.