Thursday, March 3, 2011

Market Timing Update (3/3/11)

[EOD] Stocks -

The primary bullish count is that the correction, which took the ABC form with some truncation, ended at yesterday's low (Chart 1, Green)

The primary bearish count is that today's advance is wave (c)-up of [ii]-up (Chart 1, red). The alt is [b] of a incomplete pullback.

On the bullish side ...
[1] Stocks made a higher high with respect to the Feb 28 or the Mar 1 highs across cash indexes (Chart 2).
[2] SPX has again closed above its MA10 and MA20 on decent internals (Chart 2).
[3] About 4 out of the 9 SP500 sectors made new highs beyond the levels at the beginning of the sell-off two weeks ago.
[4] Today's advance is an impulse wave advance. Chart 3 offers a squiggle count on NQ / NDX.
[5] Apple appears to have made a five-up from its recent low.

On the bearish side ...
[1] Recent rebounds have been associated with minor pullbacks in crude oil prices. But crude oil prices have not topped based on wave counts, among other things.
[2] No higher high yet in ES and YM futures, but NQ made a higher high today. See point [1] above.
[3] Strong sectors making new highs have been defensive sectors so far. See point [3] above.

[250pm] Count update (NDX, NQ) -
[11am] Count update (ES) -
A five-up in Apple? If so, it is consistent with the purple count in ES.
[845am] Overnight update (DX) -
[710am] Overnight update (ES) -
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