Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Market Timing Update (3/15/11)

[746pm] ES update
Update on the ES squiggles posted below.

[EOD] Observations
[1] If the current decline is a minor (or now much less probable minute) degree A-B-C correction, the low should be in.

As the March ES chart in the overnight update below shows, C = 1.57 A.
In cash SPX (Chart 1), C=1.429 A.

Any "meaningful" probe below the over night low would strongly suggest at least a correction at a larger degree (e.g., with respect to the July low as (X)of [Y], with respect to the 2009 bottom as [B] of x) if not the outright top of the hope rally (P[2] or x)

[2] Squiggles remain ambiguous in both cash and futures and are yet to deliver a complete five-up (Chart 2 and Chart 3).

The bearish counts will likely survive for some time even as the market continues to rebound higher - recall the 2010-April-to-August experience. Chart 4 tracks the proposed corrective and impulsive counts.

[Overnight update]