Sunday, October 17, 2010

Unfinished Business (Update 1)(10/15/10 Close)

Please refer to Unfinished Business (10/8/10) for context regarding this topic.

$DJW(DJ World Stock Index), $TSX (Canada) and $DAX (Germany) are already above their respective April highs.

$NIKK(ei) (Japan) appears to have found an intermediate term bottom.

$FTSE (UK) is almost reaching its April high.

These movements are even more notable than the actions in $NDX (U.S.) since they have been taking place against the backdrop of strengthening home currencies (against the USD). To risk being obvious, note that many attribute much of the QE-2 front running in U.S. stocks to a falling home currency (USD). That's certainly not the case in these global markets.

Thus, odds seem to be turning against a major reversal in the U.S. below the April high, barring a gross truncation and in spite of the slack in the economy and the headwind against financials.

Thus, a near term pullback in U.S. stocks is likely to find support above the August high (1129.24 in SPX).

Finally, the most important point of this post is not arguing for a bullish case nor a bearish case. It is rather that while lower probability events (i.e. a major reversal below the April high in this case) do sometime take place - otherwise, what's the point of their existence? - they should not (no longer) be overpriced.

The market will show its hand one way or the other.