Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Market Timing Update (10/6/10 Close)

[4PM Stocks]

Regarding the wave structure, the [2PM] update is worth repeating. This is the all you can count version -

[red] The top is in. No confirmation on the squiggles yet. The decline in senior indices look rather corrective.

[green] v of (v) up is likely in progress. Does not work for COMPQ, NDX, RUT.

[orange] ED. The decline so far could be just [A] of d. Does not work for NDX.

[blue] A regular five up to the sky from the most recent low. NDX is a concern as there's not much room to retrace with respect to the April high. However, NDX seems to have its own ideas often times (see the long term chart on the right)

Subjectively, the ED (orange) and the regular five appear attractive as they work for most indices. Today's low could be just [A] of d of the ED or [A] of ii-down of the regular five.

Note that the structure of the decline would be complete if the green count plays out in the senior indices.

If Monday's low is breached or there is a more obvious five-down, the top is likely in.

The discussion regarding medium and long term wave structure in yesterday's EOD update continue to be applicable.