Monday, October 25, 2010

Market Timing Update (10/25/10 Close)

[920pm stocks] The proposed top counts continue to track market action. Chart 1 and Chart 2 offer an update on SPX and ES.

The likelihood of today's high being the expected top (either the top or minor wave 3 since the July low) is there but not high - see the black-count on ES (Chart 2) and the VIX squiggles (Chart 3) - because

(1) $TRAN has exceeded its April high and $INDU is getting closer and closer to its April high. Odds now favor many indices to exceed their April highs on the current run.

(2) The decline from today high still counts as a zigzag that requires further development.

(3) The count with the best form since the 10/19 low in ES is a zigzag up (or a general three).

While this could be the final segment of an expanding EDT, the 10/19 low needs to be taken out.

(4) Other possibilities exit (Chart 2), including
[green] A most bullish extended fifth wave.
[blue] A least bullish contracting ED.

Ambiguity in the USD index remains. Chart 4 updates.