Monday, October 18, 2010

Market Timing Update (10/18/10 Close)

[435pm] Futures - ES sliding and USD index "surging" after the cash close.
[4pm] stocks -
The 215pm update (see below) is still applicable. We can now drop the least likely "the top is in" fancy. IMHO, the blue count (wave (iv) still in progress) remains more probable that the green count (wave (v) already in progress). Chart 1 updates. Chart 2 throws in additional near term counts I'm monitoring.

[215pm] stocks -
Three near term counts on the SPX

[Blue]The recent high is the end of wave (iii) since the late August low. Wave (iv)is still in progress, look for the end of wave (iv) at ultimately lower levels (say around 1150 - [typo of 1050 corrected, thanks to kmoney]) - most likely.

[Green] Same as Blue, but wave (iv) ended on Friday afternoon. Wave (v) is currently in progress - moderately likely.

[Red] The top is in - least likely, possible but likely wishful thinking.