Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Market Timing Update (10/13/10 Close)

[1150pm] USD index, and EUR.USD update -
Getting there
[948pm stocks and USD] futures update
ES up on dollar weakness. This is the proposed final wave v of (c) of a zigzag [c] of minor 2. Please see the 4pm update for the larger picture count and more details.
[4pm stocks and USD]
The news of the day is that NDX has officially exceeded its April high. Will other indices follow? Maybe - the INDU and WLSH are not far behind.

Objectively speaking from an EWP perspective,
[1] The 2-year perspective is ambiguous (see observation [2]). The market remains a bull-and-bear trap. Both camps are likely trading on hope (or if you prefer, conviction. )

[2] The 1-year perspective suggests that the April high will eventually taken out. Timing is also ambiguous, ranging from "immediately" (incomplete P2-up or P3-up or incomplete P2-down expanded flat), to later (incomplete P2-down ABC), to "never" (P3-down).

[3] The short term perspective suggests a zigzag since the late August low will be complete after one more squiggle high. One will not be sure whether this zigzag is only the first three waves of a regular five during and after the subsequent pullback.

Today's new high in NDX certainly lends support to the bullish bias in stocks, but does not change the observations raised above.

Barring a truncation in the decline in the USD index, the bottoming process also lends support to the bullish bias in stocks. Neither does it change the observations raised above.