Monday, January 4, 2016

Market Timing Update (1/4/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
Today's "thrust down" (see 2016 Outlook (1/1/16)) can be viewed as a retest of the August lows for most stocks (Chart 1).  As such, the low in SP500 may end up being higher as it is driven by large caps.  Chart 2 presents such a path under this interpretation.  Chart 3 and Chart 4 update squiggles and tracking counts.

[1205pm] SPX update -
Interesting golden-ratio division of this sell-off by the blue A or red (iii)/i in Chart 1.

[815am] ES update -
Here comes the proposed retest of 2010/2020 area (in SPX cash). If potential support holds, potential triangle B(blue) or zigzag B (green) may be in play. See chart.