Friday, March 22, 2013

MTU Weekend Ed. - Short Term Update (3/22/13 close)

There's no change to our view discussed in A View from a Top (3/15/13).   Chart 1 updates the 60-min chart on SP-500 and Chart 2 highlights a number of tracking counts for the proposed final subdivision of the upswing since the November low. 

The most bearish count is a truncated small-degree 5th wave in SPX  (Chart 2, red count).  Note that there is no truncation in the Dow, transports and SP400 under this interpretation, satisfying the minimum requirement of a higher high.  Of course, this small-degree 5th wave could extend into a regular impulse wave or an EDT as illustrated in the chart.

Bullish counts in Chart 2 are built on various potential points where wave [iv] could (have) completed. The proposed wave [v] (of 5) would push the market to a moderate new high.