Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Market Timing Update (6/19/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
If the current upswing started around June 14th, SPX is likely approaching its end which would be labeled as a bearish (C) or bullish (3). See Chart 1 (red) and Chart 2 ( pink*).
If the current upswing started around June 12th, there's more upward subdivision (See other counts in Chart 1 and Chart 2).
Big picture wise, the rebound has now satisfied a wave 2/B structure in terms of price and time under the bearish interpretation is on track. The bullish interpretation, naturally, calls for new highs.

[1045am] SPX update -

[840am] ES update -
ES now has retraced around 0.618-fib of the decline from the potential orthodox high (Chart 1). The recent leg of rebound has been policy and policy expectation driven (Chart 3, right).