Thursday, June 14, 2012

Market Timing Update (6/14/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
Recent spikes in stocks have been triggered by policy announcements - Spain over the weekend and Greece today - with little follow-through buying. The ES Chart in the [330pm entry] illustrates.

The chart on the right updates our tracking counts. Note that the recent consolidation zone in stocks is still holding. Also note the two counts worth monitoring.
(pink [c]-up) The next wave up is already in progress, but wedging.
(blue) Today's rise is still (b)-up of [ii]-down or [b]-down, with at least (c)-down to follow if not something more bearish (such as the purple count).

[330pm] ES update -
Moment of truth on the ES chart following Spain and Greece moments. ES hit the proposed red C based on the bearish count (see 1020am entry below).

[1020am] SPX/ES update -
Bullish (blue) and bearish (green on SPX and red on ES) squiggle counts on SPX and ES. Note the possibility of reaching 0.618-fib retrace area on a post-expanding-triangle-thrust in ES based on the bearish count.

[735am] ES update -