Thursday, July 7, 2011

Market Timing Update (7/7/11)

[EOD] Stocks -
[1] NDX made a recovery high today (Chart 1). Note that [Y]=[W] at 2462.84 (Chart to the right).
[2] Tracking counts on SPX place it at/near the end of wave (iii)-up from the nominal June low [Blue Count] OR the end of (v)-up if one assumes an orthodox low for wave (ii)-down [Red Count] (Chart 2).

[1150am] Mid-day update (NDX, SPX)-
On the near term bullish side, the near break out in NDX is informative (still could be part of an expanded triangle or W-X-Y corrective, but needs confirmation at this stage).
On the near term bearish side, the tracking counts on SPX are informative. It's possible that the small-degree wave (iv)is already behind us based on the red count. At the moment, the count with the best form appears to be the blue count.

[950am] SPX count update -
update to the tracking count on SPX, see the 2nd chart below
[830am] Squiggle update (ES) -

[8am] Overnight update (ES) -