Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Market Timing Update (9/7/10 Close)

[1028PM]ES update -
One may also count the decline as an impulse as indicated in the chart. If it is indeed an impulse, we'll have a flat or the first leg of a zigzag under a near term bullish interpretation (say [c] of 2-up), OR we'll have an initial five down under the bearish interpretation (say, [iii]-down of 3-down).

[1012PM]ES update -
A potential ED may be playing out. See 4PM update.

[4PM stocks] The decline most likely is corrective given price actions so far. In the ES, it took on the form of a flat-x-double three structure (Chart 1). The pull back is likely done, with the possibility of another squiggle low to finish a potential ED.

Regarding how it fits into the larger wave structure, the best interpretation is that it likely is a wave (b) pull-back (Chart 2).

If the most bearish count (red in Chart 2) is playing out, the overnight high must hold given the size of the decline to date.