Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Market Timing Update (9/8/10 Close)

[925PM] ES Update -
It's helpful to keep an eye on the larger wave structure (Chart 1) as there are numerous short term options (Chart 2).

[4PM Stocks] Near term potential for stocks remains up, and odds favor that the August high being taken out. The primary count remains that minute wave [c] of minor wave 2-up is in progress (Blue in Chart 1), as was discussed in the weekly commentary, An informative roller coaster ride (9/3/10). Chart 1 updates the top larger picture scenarios.

Assuming this morning's overnight low is the end of wave (b) or the end of a fourth wave (iv) or iv, Chart 2 offers a count of today's action and projections.

Chart 2 shows that a fourth wave triangle in progress may be the best interpretation of this afternoon's volatility. Several possibilities to consider:

[1] Since wave iii is rough on par with wave i, the post triangle thrust (as wave v) is likely to be extended all the way beyond the August high to complete [c] of 2-up.

[2] If the post triangle thrust (as wave v) does not extend, the coming top may be just wave i of (v) or i of (c) , unless a truncation takes place (see point [3]).

[3] While the most bearish count [ii]-up of 3-down has become remotely probable, the current wave structure can still accommodate. Two possibilities to consider regarding this count:
(1) Today's high concludes a truncated wave v of [ii] up, as indicated in Red in Chart 2.
(2) If the truncation mentioned in point [2] above takes place, it leaves the possibility open for that top to be [ii]-up of 3-down. One will need the wave structure of the subsequent sell-off to discern whether the top is [ii] of 3-down or 2-up.