Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Market Timing Update (8/4/10 Close)

[4PM] To follow up on the large ending diagonal theme as illustrated by the gray labels in Chart 1 where the larger scale negative divergence has persisted so far, I see two most likely squiggle counts.

[1] The market is approaching the end of wave [B]-up of wave b-down (which may be an expanded flat). If so, we should see a pullback soon to below the Aug 3rd low as wave [C]-down of wave b-down. See the red and blue counts in Chart 2 ($WLSH) as well as that in Chart 3 (E-mini).

[2] Today's advance is already the final wave c-up of (e)[c]2, at its early stages. See the purple labeled count in Chart 2 ($WLSH) and the alt-count in Chart 3 (E-mini).

As I mentioned on Monday that "if the proposed ending diagonal is true to form, the maximum upside is 1152.08 (1x) in SPX." Note that today's high is 1128.75, around 1127.61 which is 0.618x.