Tuesday Update (3/31/20)

Here we go.   Blue wave [4] is at 50% retrace of the last leg down from 3136.72 to 2191.86

Monday Update (3/30/20)

Here we go.

MTU Weekend Ed. - Rebound or Bull Trap (3/27/20 close)

We explored longer-term bullish scenarios in Near Term Bottom Fishing (3/20/20). This post explores longer-term bearish scenarios in more detail. 

It can be argued that we have a completed five waves up from the 2009 low to the nominal all-time high  (Chart 1). 

Chart 2 provides a more detailed count on wave [iv]-down of 5-up, as a (w)-(x)-triangle structure often seen in recent years amid market exuberance.

Also note that the plunge in the Dow has already overlapped its wave 3-up  (Chart 3), which increases the likelihood that this is a larger degree retrace.

This could be the end of a larger degree wave (5)-up or just 1-up of (5)-up (Chart 4).  In either case,  a correction of the 11-year run from 2009 to 2020 could be running and is unlikely to have lasted only 6 weeks.

 

For the near term, we have an impressive bullish weekly candle (Chart 2 above) but SPX is still pressured by the downward trend line until it is broken.  For short term tracking, we are monitoring the possibility of a fresh upswing (Chart 5 purple and green)  or a fourth wave flat (Chart 5 blue)

Thursday Update (3/26/20)

Here we go

Wednesday Update (3/25/20)

[EOD Update]- see intraday update for description

[Intraday Update 1pm NYSE]- More clarity with additional price prints, the low is in (purple (C)) or not (blue [4])

Tuesday Update (3/24/20)

 [EOD Update]
Chart update to include additional price prints.  See intraday update for descriptions.

[Intraday Update, 1:20pm NYSE]
There is more clarity with additional price prints.
Tracking counts
The near term low is in - purple
Bull trap - red and Chart 2 (expanding EDT yet to complete)
Killing time - blue wave [4]-up

Monday Update (3/23/20)

[EOD Update] -
Tracking counts. A large contracting EDT wave (C)-down has the best visual form so far (Chart 1 purple, Chart 2). The floor is 2016.6 as labeled on the chart.

An expanding EDT wave [5]-down requires another leg lower to exceed 2184.51 (Chart 1 red, Chart 3). The numbers for a contracting EDT wave [5]-down do not work out (missed by about 2 index points at today's low.)

Then there is the possibility of a complex wave [4]-up to take up more time and to alternate with wave [2]-up for the impulse count (Chart 1 blue).

[Intraday Update - 10:30am NYSE] -
Here we go, see previous updates for discussion.