Market Timing Update

Sunday, September 18, 2022

Two potential wedges in SPX, one bullish and the other bearish. Neither may materialized and each can morph into a double zigzag.

SPX has been respecting the tentative wave 2 - wave 4 line (Chart 1 & 2)

Reactions near the prior HS neckline and the previous support/resistance zone will be informative (Chart 3)

SPX has reached the downside measured target of the small-degree head-and-shoulders pattern.

The gray box in the Chart represents a support-resistance zone in SPX.

SPX has delivered a false upside breakout with respect to the support-resistance zone indicated by the gray box in the Chart.

This past Friday, SPX closed at the low of the daily and weekly bar, below the zone, as well as the neckline of a small head-and-shoulders setup.

The green wave 4-dn serves as a bear trap.

SPX peaked and SMA200 and is now retesting a prior resistance zone, now potential support.

The blue count (ABC up) anticipates at least a deep, if not an entire retrace.

The bullish count have the high as the top of a 3rd wave or wave 1 or a 3rd wave, implying different retrace amounts.

SPX closed above its Jan-Mar support and has recovered its June loss (Chart 1).

Monitor if this is ABC or 123.

C-up may conclude soon or can morph into an much extended one that parallels 3-up (Chart 2).

SPX is approaching its January low from below.

Price actions in the first week of August did not break SPX above its June high - still inside bars so far.

Three waves up from its June low so far.