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Sunday, August 7, 2022
MTU Weekend Ed - Approaching Resistance (8/5/22 close)
SPX is approaching its January low from below.
Price actions in the first week of August did not break SPX above its June high - still inside bars so far.
Some counts show 5 waves down from the Nov 21 high to June 22 low.
I saw Neely's recent forecast saying sideways range to year end then bull trend resume for a year but the overall problem I have with it is he assumes the mkt pattern (of his method) will repeat, when we all know that at some junctures it does not. It may it, may not. His 1988 forecast (DJIA 100K pts by 2060) for 2000-2007 period was not accurate (didnt show the great sideways gyrations for 2000-2009), nor was the 2015, 2016, 2017 ones for the next moves.
Even MTU's best forecasts in 2011 a decade ago only the more radical one was even remotely close.
Some counts show 5 waves down from the Nov 21 high to June 22 low.
ReplyDeleteI saw Neely's recent forecast saying sideways range to year end then bull trend resume for a year but the overall problem I have with it is he assumes the mkt pattern (of his method) will repeat, when we all know that at some junctures it does not. It may it, may not. His 1988 forecast (DJIA 100K pts by 2060) for 2000-2007 period was not accurate (didnt show the great sideways gyrations for 2000-2009), nor was the 2015, 2016, 2017 ones for the next moves.
Even MTU's best forecasts in 2011 a decade ago only the more radical one was even remotely close.
Note the LT chart positions of major stks.
Contributing factors - wave cycles, index being priced in a fiat currency, policies.
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