Market Timing Update (9/26/16)

[210pm] SPX update -
See chart for pre-debate squiggles. See Weekly Commentary for bigger picture discussion.

MTU Weekend Ed. - Key Juncture (9/23/16 close)

SPX has successfully retested the 2015/2016 breakout area, yet to make a new all-time high and is at potential short term resistance (Chart 1). Meanwhile, NDX has made fresh all-time highs and has satisfied the minimum requirement of a top (Chart 2 and Chart 3) barring extension (Chart 3 green text).

One way to reconcile the two is to note that SPX is at an interesting juncture with respect to both the bullish and bearish scenarios (Chart 4).

[Bullish Scenario-Green] The pullback from the August high ended mid- or late-September as marked. Friday's pullback is likely a small degree 2nd wave (or 4th wave). A gap open above the resistance will not be surprising if a small degree 3rd wave up is next.

[Bearish Scenario-Blue] The mid- or late-September low marked the first ABC-decline from the August high in SPX. Wave X or Wave D has ended at this past week's high if we count from the mid-September low. Wave X has one more advance to complete if we count from the late September low. The coming decline can be viewed as wave C-down of a flat from the August high. If so, the decline can potentially be as significant as the August 2015 and January 2016 sell-off.

Key support in SPX is currently around 2080 and key resistance is around 2165.

Market Timing Update (9/23/16)

[245pm] SPX update-
This is an interesting squeeze on SPX by the blue lines (Chart 1).

Market Timing Update (9/22/16)

[1020am] NDX update -
New highs in NDX in recent days. Tracking counts since the Feb low. See charts.

[750am] ES update -
Bull/Bear tracking from the ATH. See chart.

Market Timing Update (9/21/16)

[EOD] Stocks-
SPX fills a gap, reaches the Fib-618 retrace, closed at/above the nearest overhead resistance line (Chart 1) on the post-FOMC rally. Chart 2 tracks a new upswing(green) and a rebound (blue).

[255pm] SPX update-
Wicked batch of potential triangles, including diagonal triangles. See charts.

[1025am] SPX update-
Pre-FOMC squiggles and tracking counts. See charts.

Market Timing Update (9/20/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
Still a bunch of potential bullish and bearish triangles (Chart 1) and continued struggle with emerging resistance (Chart 2).

[110pm] SPX update -
Squiggles and tracking counts. Potential triangles. See charts.

Market Timing Update (9/19/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
NDX makes a new high and SPX struggles with emerging resistance, ahead of the Fed decisions. See Chart.

[110pm] SPX update -
Squiggles and tracking counts. See charts.