Sunday, September 25, 2016

MTU Weekend Ed. - Key Juncture (9/23/16 close)

SPX has successfully retested the 2015/2016 breakout area, yet to make a new all-time high and is at potential short term resistance (Chart 1). Meanwhile, NDX has made fresh all-time highs and has satisfied the minimum requirement of a top (Chart 2 and Chart 3) barring extension (Chart 3 green text).

One way to reconcile the two is to note that SPX is at an interesting juncture with respect to both the bullish and bearish scenarios (Chart 4).

[Bullish Scenario-Green] The pullback from the August high ended mid- or late-September as marked. Friday's pullback is likely a small degree 2nd wave (or 4th wave). A gap open above the resistance will not be surprising if a small degree 3rd wave up is next.

[Bearish Scenario-Blue] The mid- or late-September low marked the first ABC-decline from the August high in SPX. Wave X or Wave D has ended at this past week's high if we count from the mid-September low. Wave X has one more advance to complete if we count from the late September low. The coming decline can be viewed as wave C-down of a flat from the August high. If so, the decline can potentially be as significant as the August 2015 and January 2016 sell-off.

Key support in SPX is currently around 2080 and key resistance is around 2165.