Market Timing Update (12/8/14)

[EOD] Stocks -

[1245pm] SPX update -

[8am] ES update -

MTU Weekend Ed. - Price and Time (12/6/14 close)

We have been tracking a potential fifth wave expanding ending diagonal triangle (EDT) since the October 2014 low in SP500 as one of the potential long term scenarios. See Chart 1 blue wave 5 and discussions in Monthly Outlook Update (11/28/14). The proposed EDT now appears (nearly) complete with an overthrow, in time but not necessarily in price. This fifth wave, when complete, should complete the advance since the December/January low (Chart 1 blue wave (5)) and in turn conclude the advance since the 2011 low (Chart 1 blue wave [3] or black wave [C]).

Under this count, the advance since the October low in stocks is the terminal wave [e] of the proposed EDT (Chart 2). Wave (a) of wave [e] or the entire wave [e] is nearing completion. Chart 3 presents the top near term tracking scenarios since the October low.

[blue] A completed five-wave advance (as wave (a) of [e] of the EDT) followed by a potential expanded flat  or triangle consolidation (as wave (b) of [e] of the EDT). Wave a and b of the consolidation is likely complete. Primary support is now at 2005 and 1930. Expect an wave (c) advance following this consolidation to complete wave [e] of the EDT.

[green] A nearly complete ABC advance.  Squiggle count on the small-degree advance in December suggests that another marginal high is possible but not required to complete the waves (Chart 4).  The completed ABC advance is either wave (a) of [e] of wave [e] of the larger expanding EDT.

 Alternatively, since we track a three-wave advance off the October low, this advance also fits the profile of wave (d) of an expanded triangle wave [4] or wave (b) of a contracting triangle or expanding flat wave [4] illustrated in Chart 5.

[black] This scenario has the ABC advance in the green count as the first three waves of a five wave advance.  Expect a shallow wave [iv] next and a wave [v] advance afterwards.  Since wave [iii] is shorter than wave [i], wave [v] is likely to be capped around 2100-2125 in SP500. 

Market Timing Update (12/5/14)

[755am] ES update-

Market Timing Update (12/4/14)

[EOD] Stocks-
SP500 closed right at near term resistance. The proposed small-degree wave five may be in (RED) or a wave four triangle could buy some time (GREEN). See chart.

[240pm] ES update-
Tracking counts. Assuming no further small-degree extension. See charts. If a small-degree extension takes place, there is a potential IHS about 15 index points in the works.

Market Timing Update (12/3/14)

[156pm] SPX update-
Near term tracking. See charts.

[740am] ES update-
The Dow made a marginal new high. ES lags. See chart.

Market Timing Update (12/2/14)

[1045am] SPX update -
Near term bullish (green) and bearish (red) squiggles. See charts.

Market Timing Update (12/1/14)

[EOD] Stocks -
The rebound off the low appears to be corrective. It resembles a bearish triangle in SP500 (however, the Dow does not agree). It raises several interesting possibilities.
On the bearish side, we see the possibilities of an immediate retest of the low tomorrow or further declines following the completion of the current rebound.
On the bullish side, we see the possibilities of a tiny degree bullish terminal triangle which counts as wave (c) of an ABC decline, or a nested 1s and 2s.
See charts.

[1225 pm] SPX update -
The highest day-gap around 2055 is filled this morning. The next day-gap is around 2000 if a high is in. Otherwise, a small-degree 5th wave of a regular five (green) or an expanding EDT (blue) is next. See charts.

[805 am] ES update -
1st of the last month of 2014. ES tracking of a potential wave C. See chart and the matching count of SP500 cash in Chart S2 of the Monthly Outlook Update (11/28/14).. The red count in the chart tracks the immediately bearish case.