Market Timing Update (3/16/12)

[730am] ES update -
Squiggles in ES counts best as wave 3 up since the Mar 6th low, or wave b-up in case of an expanded flat structure. See charts.

Market Timing Update (3/15/12)

[620pm] NDX update -
The following two charts show prospects of NDX topping at least for the near term.



[EOD] Stocks -
The grind higher continues with SP500 closing above 1400. Chart 1 shows SPX wrapping up (iii)-up or (v)-up of [v]-up off the Nov 2011 low. Chart 2 offers a squiggle count.



[1130am] ES update -
potential 4th wave triangle

Market Timing Update (3/14/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
Chart 1 offers the larger count, which is unchanged from yesterday.
On a squiggle level (Chart 2)
(bullish) (iv)-down (or even ii-down of (iii)-up) ended at today's low
(semi-bullish) today's low is a-down of a sideways (iv)-down
(bearish) a 1/2/1/2 setup for at least (c)-down of [iv]-down, gap down possible tomorrow.



[740am] DAX update -
DAX making visible waves which can be mapped into ES.

Market Timing Update (3/13/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
US stocks are at an interesting juncture at several degrees. The following charts focus on the current rip. The upcoming weekend commentary will focus on the longer term structure.

For the near term, the most natural interpretation is that (iii)-up of [v]-up off the Nov2011 low is underway (Chart 1 and 2, blue). The green count in Chart 2 has (iii)-up extending, which is probable.

At the moment, one should not dismiss a expanded flat / triangle correction either (Chart 1 and 2, red).




[1pm] SPX update -
a look at the larger count, see 2nd chart below
[7am] ES update -

Market Timing Update (3/12/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
Chart 1 shows the larger count. The blue [v]-up, red (c)/(iii)-down and the green (v)-up rank in the order of decreasing likelihood.
Chart 2 (SPX) and Chart 3 to the right (INDU) offer the fluid squiggle counts. 
Please see the 1245pm entry below for counts on VIX which made a fresh low.




[135pm] ES update -
Finding support at the base trend line (see 720am update)










[1245pm] VIX update -
see 2nd chart below
[1215pm] NDX update -
Follow up on Chart 2 of Reset? (3/9/12).


[720am] DAX, ES update -

MTU Weekend Ed. - Reset ? (3/9/12 Close)

Bottom line - SP500 has quickly recovered from a 2.75% decline. Unless it reverses down next week, odds favor a fifth wave advance off the November 2011 being in progress given the new high in NDX and SP500 A/D line and an already deep retrace in SP500.

Details -
NDX made a marginal new high (Chart 1) and sports the most short term bullish wave structure on the squiggles (Chart 2).


SPX managed a deep retrace with top options still open on the table (Chart 3).  Squiggle count (Chart 4) lands support.



Meanwhile, the Dow has severely lagged (Chart 5) and probably shows the clearest potentially bearish seven-wave rebound since the recent low (Chart 6).



If this rebound is a bearish 2nd wave or B wave rebound (whose odds are diminishing), there's wisdom in the phrase "topping progress."   A potential B wave retrace is likely part of an ongoing sideways wave [iv] variations (i.e. a triangle or a flat based on the green count, Chart 3) with respect to the November 2011 low. 

Otherwise, one must respect the possibility that the market successfully managed a wave [iv]-down reset  (red count, Chart 3) and is on its way to wrap up wave [v]-up with respect to the November 2011 low (Chart 7).  Supporting factors include the new high in NDX, deep retrace in SPX accompanied by a new high in the SP500 Advance/Decline line (Chart 8).

Market Timing Update (3/9/12)

[730am] ES update -
the bigger picture.