Market Timing Update (2/15/11)

[EOD]stocks -
The primary count is that wave (iv) is still in progress, which could be complete at today's low or has one more thrust down (see charts).
[1110am]Mid-day update (SPX, INDU)-
Assuming that the high of this wave is not in (which is likely), it's possible that the "consensus" is rushing the count on the rise since late Jan low a bit. Here's a slower version to consider. The squiggle labels may need to be moved around a bit for the best fit, but the general idea is that wave (iv) is still in progress or has ended at the AM low. This version also accommodates the wave structure divergence between SPX and INDU.
[950am] Count update (SPX)-
this count fits well with SPX and NDX, but not with INDU
[730am] Overnight update (ES,NQ, USD)-

Market Timing Update (2/14/11)

[EOD]-
What's more interesting is the action in stock index futures as a swift after-hours sell-off has nearly wiped out the gain from the day's low. Chart 1 and Chart 2 offer the top counts.

On balance, odds favor additional upside for the current advance while the market has certainly fulfilled the minimum requirement to end the advance since the late January low (as marked by the red label). Note, for example, that Transports have yet to manage a new high (which is likely) and that the Dow futures has not yet taken out its overnight high.

Thus, the AH pullback could be wave [2] of v of (v) as marked, the final leg of wave iv of (v), or a part of a correction in an "endless" extension as indicated by the black label. Of course, we may have the initial parts of a nice impulse wave decline if a peak or the top is in.

Chart 3 to the right shows how each option could fit into the larger count.

[1215pm] The larger structure (SPX, INDU) -
Looking increasingly tracking...
[1110am] Mid-day update (SPX) -

[745am] Overnight update (ES, DX) -

MTU Weekend Ed. - Logical Ending Points (2/11/11)

In the context of the increasing (if not dominant) possibility that this stock market rally is an x-wave – see A Potential x Wave (2/4/11) –

We must recognize the reality
(1) that this rally is no longer bound by the prior high, and
(2) that this rally can end at any one of the logical peaks either below or above the prior high.

From a EWP perspective, the best we can do is
(1) to analyze each large wave structure one at a time, and
(2) to identify candidate peaks as potential logical ending points to the proposed wave x.

Over the course of the proposed wave x, prior potential logical ending points are peaks in October 2009 and January 2010.

The coming peak, when the advance since the November 2010 low is complete, represents another logical end of the proposed wave x. At the moment, residual near term upside exists as (1) the advance since the 1/28/11 low is still subdividing higher (Chart 1) and (2) the DJ transport average, which has a good chance of confirming the new high in INDU, needs to do so.

However, the upside potential is likely capped at 1341.78 in SPX if the count in Chart 2 is correct, as wave (iii) of [v] is shorter than wave (i) of [v]. Note that the proposed cap is less than 1% away from Friday's close.



The major competing bullish counts consider minor wave 3 since the July low as extending. These counts are highlighted by the green and red labels in Chart 3. Wave structures in NDX and RUT and better channeling within the advance since the Nov'10 low appear to support this interpretation. Net net, the area around the Jan'11 low becomes an important support zone or an initial trend reversal confirmation zone.



From a technical analysis perspective, Friday’s high of 1330.79 and close of 1329.15 in SPX barely cleared the 10-year resistance zone discussed in last week’s update (Chart 4). It’s now up to the bullish forces to transform the 1313-1327 area into a support zone for any sustained upside potential.

Appendix -
Rhyming with Q2 of 2008 at a larger degree? 4 to 1 or 5 to 1?

Market Timing Update (2/11/11)

[EOD]Stocks and USD -
For stocks, futures appear to suggest one more push higher after a wave iv pull back. If the end of wave (iv) is the red (iv), the end of this wave is much closer if not already here.

The rebound in DX is so far a three-wave affair, with the ambiguity in the initial advance - is it a 5-wave impulse or a 7-wave corrective wave? So far the base channel has held. The first chart shows the bullish and bearish counts. The second chart shows the bearish squiggles from today's high.

[1228pm] Mid-day update (INDU) -
showing another option in addition to the ones highlighted in SPX.

[1222pm] Mid-day update (SPX) -
[1045am] YM squiggles - two counts










[8am] Overnight update (USD) -
[740am] Overnight update (stocks)-

Market Timing Update (2/10/11)

[630pm] Futures -
Bullish count










[EOD]
Four tracking options at the moment, with subjective assessment of the associated probabilities.
[most likely, blue] wave (iv) is still in progress, likely sideways as discussed yesterday. There's little room for today's low to be violated in SPX, but more room in INDU. The pink count is fairly unlikely as it does not fit with the wave structure of INDU.
[likely, certainly fitting, but too early to call] wave (v) has started at today's low, but is tracing out and ED - therefore, the appearance of a three in today's rebound. The other possibility is that the volatility around the Egypt news is a complex wave ii of (v).
[less likely, red] The top of this wave is in.

[2pm] INDU Squiggles -

[1210pm] Mid-day update (SPX) -










[1010am] Count update (SPX, INDU) -
make or break time for the green count

[730am] Overnight update (stocks and USD) -

Market Timing Update (2/9/11)

[EOD]-
The primary near term count on stocks is that a small degree 4th wave ended at today's intraday low (Chart 1). The proposed 4th wave could develop into a more complex three (which is likely sideways), but it doesn't need to. The red labeled count in Chart 1 offers a bearish alternative.

We can count a five-up on the rebound from the day's low. We'll label it wave i of (v)-up for now (Chart 2).

It's important to keep an eye on the working version of the larger count (Chart 3 to the right).

[245pm]Count update (SPX)-










[1125am-1145am] Mid-day update (INDU, SPX)-
[720am, 845am] Overnight update (YM, ES)-

Market Timing Update (2/8/11)

[EOD] stocks -

Real time update archived at MTU Real Time


[730am] Overnight update