SPX was rejected by the blue trendline Friday. The trendline had been sucessfully tested four times and held since November, until now. SPX has unable to break above the trendline so far. Since November, there have been six unfilled gaps below. Waves appear to have been fully developed. Also note the nice Fibo relationship between sub-waves.
If it is an expanding diagonal triangle from Oct 2022 (blue), SPX is overthrowing. If we have a regular five wave (red), this past week’s advance may be part of wave three of wave five, with wave four-down and five-up left. The NYSE composite has finally caught up and made a new high.
SPX is approaching its upper edge of a potential expanding triangle. The smaller Wave A and Wave C within its final Wave E are also forming a nice Fib ratio.
SPX is approaching the lower channel line off its March low and June/July support.
SPX is correcting the upswing from (at least) the March low.
The decline so far may be counted as
three waves down from the nominal high or a potential five-down from an orthodox high due to a failed small-degree 5th wave.
Since its ATH, SPX has likely seen 3 waves down and 3 waves up so far.
A potential base channel since the Oct 2022 low is now well defined. SPX is currently probing this base channel high.
If the advance since Oct 2022 is indeed an impulse, SPX should rise comfortably above this base channel.
If the advance is corrective, the base channel should be a formidable resistance.
If this potential large wave FOUR in SPX is still in progress, it may be a triangle with its B wave around the current high, or a WXY structure with W at the May 2022 low and X around the current high.
The current high is at upper line of a (potential base-) channel from the Oct 2022 low. A more meaningful reaction is likely.
SPX is likely to react at the upper channel line (Chart 1) or consolidate towards a lesser-degree lower channel line (Chart 2).
SPX is up 15.91% year to date (excluding dividends). It's possible to view the Dow and SPX being aligned again (not the only scenario), sharing an ABC-down-ABC-up structure from the 2022 ATH, SPX and INDU (Chart 3).
SPX is pulling back within the channel after a 4-week run.
(From last week) - "SPX has remained above major resistance for a second week, but the upswing since Oct 2022 has also remained in channel."
Now, SPX is probing the channel.
SPX has remained above major resistance for a second week, but the upswing since Oct 2022 has also remained in channel (Chart 1), so far. Three waves up since Oct 2022. Three waves up since the March low - perhaps can be counted as a single five since the March low (Chart 2 blue)
SPX finally closed over its key resistance zone, which has reined in advances since the Oct 2022 bottom.
SPX is probing the top of its resistance zone, closed above the Feb 2022 low and slightly shy of the Jan 2022 low (Chart 1)
A reaction (down) from current levels could be labeled as a reversal from an ending expanding triangle or wave C-down of an expanded flat (Chart 2)
Chart 3 updates the larger tracking scenarios.
