Saturday, January 21, 2023

MTU Weekend Ed. - 2022 Trendline stilll (1/20/23 close)

The same trend remains of concern in SPX.

Initial reaction early this week was followed by a strong rebound Friday, bringing SPX to test the same trend line as of Friday's close. 




9 comments:

  1. DJIA - I had cause to update my special moving average turn calculator (SMAC) today which I havent for 5 years and reviewed its predictions.

    It picks turns usually within 2- 5 days of mkt top/bottom and the net trend direction of the index continues until a new mkt turn commences which this SMAC detects within a few days.

    The current data is -

    DJIA made a low on 10 October 2022 and the SMAC turned up on 12 October 2022 and both advanced.

    DJIA made peak on 30 Nov 2022 and the SMAC turned down on 7 Dec 2022 and it has so far not turned up. It is slowing its decline but can regain the speed. May turn up soon, may not.

    So we will see what happens.

    The interesting fact there is it picked the mkt stalling in early Dec and that peak on the index has been broken on the upside (and on SPX too).


    Sometimes this SMAC picks a turn before the DJIA makes top or bottom, like 9 March 2022 the SMAC turned up and the DJIA made low of 11 March 2022. Gave a 2 day advanced signal.

    Sometimes (rare occasions) with large double tops the SMAC takes 2-3 weeks to turn around. Like Nov-Dec 2021. But the net trend is always right for several weeks afterwards.

    Picked most of the other mkt turns the past 5 years too.

    This SMAC sometimes misses a beat (on a unusual mkt chart pattern) but in the long term is ideal for 2-3 month moves as long as you hedge the position.

    I will do the SPX one for this later today but I suspect the results will be similar. Would be relevant for use on UKX DAX NIKKI HSI etc...

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    1. Note - those dates for tops and bottom on DJIA are based on the data stream of the Closing Price of the index.

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    2. Error correction - this above text should read

      "The interesting fact there is it picked the mkt stalling in early Dec and that peak on the index has NOT been broken on the upside (and on SPX too)."

      -----------------

      I dont trade index futures or option so this type of moving average is not watched. I have too many other things to watch using other methods.

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    3. very interesting. please do update when it turns

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  2. My SMAC indicator referred to above has modestly turned up as of 26 January DJIA close, but it wont be confirmed for at least a week. It needs to consistently move up for at least 4 days in a row with strength to be valid. Then you have to be alert for a reversal as they can happen 10% of the time.

    So we will see what happens. Is an upswing on or not ?

    SPX one I have done and is similar, but it turned up for 2 days then turned down on 26 Jan so its not clear a turn is on.

    DJIA is overly strong rel to other indexes so its signal may be exaggerated.

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    1. Error - the SPX one hasnt turned down - I was looking at a experimental variation of it. The std one is same as DJIA and has turned up. So we will see if there is follow thru on this.

      My technical wave analysis counts etc.. on these questions a rally at this point.

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  3. I was rechecking the calculations in my SMAC spreadsheet and found some replication errors (which can happen when copying formulas/cells) - DJIA hasnt turned up yet - still moving down.

    SPX has turned up marginally and is unchanged from above comments.

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  4. UPDATE Sat 28 Jan 2023 - having plugged in Friday 27 Jan close on DJIA & SPX to the SMAC the data streams say -

    DJIA would require a 1000 pt fall on Monday not to turn up on Monday.

    SPX would need a 270 pt fall to turn down from is modest advance the past few days since it turned up on 24 Jan.

    Note tho the SMAC curve does make irregular size cyclical type swings and this turn up is in the middle of a swing and this reversal could turn down as some in the past at that point have done. Also note it does miss a beat 1 in 10 times.

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  5. Nice post thank you Laura

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