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Saturday, December 17, 2022
MTU Weekend Ed - Cash Gap (12/16/22 Close)
This past week's drop nearly filled the early November gap in SPX.
Chart 1 & 2 - in all you this you miss some fundamental wave issues.
On chart 2 it is highly unlikely the blue 2 3 4 is valid because wave 3 rel to wave 1 is too small both in price range and time period (see MTUs prev posts) therefore 4 is also as result unlikely unless the mkt is running a skewed wave seq.
The purple and red BB also would be to long a time period to be valid for the wave A.
Good to be aware of concerns and possibilities. Added Chart 3 (linear) for reference in one place. On log-scale, 3 will look much smaller than 1. 2 and 4 still alternates and similar in duration.
On Chart 3 your blue 1-2 visually looks also more likely to be a 3-4. With the 1-2 being 2011-12 period. But that may not be the correct actual orthodox count.
Generally the mkt will not run more than 4 sections up or down. Normally turns on 3.
Also note from the 2000 peak it was a-b-c sideways correction down to late 2008 low (=fib 8 yrs) and up 5? waves to 2021 (=fib 13 yrs).
An alt count is the orth end of 5 if the Jan 2018 peak.
SPX prob needs to correct back to around the 2020 low to continue LT up if the main uptrend is still intact.
On the larger wave picture we now have a reasonable 5 seq from 1932 low, and even the 1949 low if you use Neely's ideas. Although I favor the 1942 low as the more prob end of the a-b-c from 1929 peak as both sides of the count from it make more sense. 1942 low is also 13 yrs from 1929.
In writing this I compared the LT seqs, and see there is similar was pattern (compressed) of the DJIA 1895-1929 seq (34yrs) to the 1974-2021 one (47yrs). 47 = 34 +13. And 47 = 34 x 1.382. It would normal as time clocks fwd in a larger degree for the time count to also expand in such ratios.
Note also the 34 yrs from 1895 to 1929 fib also matches the 13 to 1942 as a 0.382. You then see a nice strong 5 waves to 1966 of 24 yrs (24 = fib 21+3).
Writing that again correcting my spelling ........
On the larger wave picture we now have a reasonable 5 seq from 1932 low, and even the 1949 low if you use Neely's ideas. Although I favor the 1942 low as the more prob end of the a-b-c from 1929 peak as both sides of the count from it make more sense. 1942 low is also 13 yrs from 1929.
In writing this I compared the LT seqs, and see there is a similar wave pattern (compressed) of the DJIA 1895-1929 seq (34yrs) to the 1974-2021 one (47yrs). 47 = 34 +13. And 47 = 34 x 1.382. It would be normal as time clocks fwd in a larger degree for the time count to also expand in such ratios.
Note also the 34 yrs from 1895 to 1929 fib also matches the 13 to 1942 as a 0.382. You then see a nice strong 5 waves to 1966 of 24 yrs (24 = fib 21+3).
We need to consider summations of fib numbers in these time counts - eg 21+3. ------
Note on the DJIA chart I have there was a decade ending low in 1895, but going back further it would only be classifable as wave 4 point from the 1844 larger deg low. So 1895-1929 is? wave 5 of some larger seq. (Neely thinks that 1835 peak to 1949 low is a massive basing wave 2 on super-super cycle and there might be some basis for that).
Chart 1 & 2 - in all you this you miss some fundamental wave issues.
ReplyDeleteOn chart 2 it is highly unlikely the blue 2 3 4 is valid because wave 3 rel to wave 1 is too small both in price range and time period (see MTUs prev posts) therefore 4 is also as result unlikely unless the mkt is running a skewed wave seq.
The purple and red BB also would be to long a time period to be valid for the wave A.
Good to be aware of concerns and possibilities. Added Chart 3 (linear) for reference in one place. On log-scale, 3 will look much smaller than 1. 2 and 4 still alternates and similar in duration.
DeleteOn Chart 3 your blue 1-2 visually looks also more likely to be a 3-4. With the 1-2 being 2011-12 period. But that may not be the correct actual orthodox count.
DeleteGenerally the mkt will not run more than 4 sections up or down. Normally turns on 3.
Also note from the 2000 peak it was a-b-c sideways correction down to late 2008 low (=fib 8 yrs) and up 5? waves to 2021 (=fib 13 yrs).
An alt count is the orth end of 5 if the Jan 2018 peak.
SPX prob needs to correct back to around the 2020 low to continue LT up if the main uptrend is still intact.
On the larger wave picture we now have a reasonable 5 seq from 1932 low, and even the 1949 low if you use Neely's ideas. Although I favor the 1942 low as the more prob end of the a-b-c from 1929 peak as both sides of the count from it make more sense. 1942 low is also 13 yrs from 1929.
ReplyDeleteIn writing this I compared the LT seqs, and see there is similar was pattern (compressed) of the DJIA 1895-1929 seq (34yrs) to the 1974-2021 one (47yrs). 47 = 34 +13. And 47 = 34 x 1.382. It would normal as time clocks fwd in a larger degree for the time count to also expand in such ratios.
Note also the 34 yrs from 1895 to 1929 fib also matches the 13 to 1942 as a 0.382. You then see a nice strong 5 waves to 1966 of 24 yrs (24 = fib 21+3).
Writing that again correcting my spelling ........
ReplyDeleteOn the larger wave picture we now have a reasonable 5 seq from 1932 low, and even the 1949 low if you use Neely's ideas. Although I favor the 1942 low as the more prob end of the a-b-c from 1929 peak as both sides of the count from it make more sense. 1942 low is also 13 yrs from 1929.
In writing this I compared the LT seqs, and see there is a similar wave pattern (compressed) of the DJIA 1895-1929 seq (34yrs) to the 1974-2021 one (47yrs). 47 = 34 +13. And 47 = 34 x 1.382. It would be normal as time clocks fwd in a larger degree for the time count to also expand in such ratios.
Note also the 34 yrs from 1895 to 1929 fib also matches the 13 to 1942 as a 0.382. You then see a nice strong 5 waves to 1966 of 24 yrs (24 = fib 21+3).
We need to consider summations of fib numbers in these time counts - eg 21+3.
------
Note on the DJIA chart I have there was a decade ending low in 1895, but going back further it would only be classifable as wave 4 point from the 1844 larger deg low. So 1895-1929 is? wave 5 of some larger seq. (Neely thinks that 1835 peak to 1949 low is a massive basing wave 2 on super-super cycle and there might be some basis for that).