MTU Weekend Ed. - Happy New Year (12/30/22 close)

 

MTU Weekend Ed - Year End Action (12/23/22 close)

If the pullback this past week is wave two (blue) or wave B (green) in the form of an expanded flat,  the low is likely in. 

Otherwise, this 5 wave down (red) is the initial down leg. 

 Squiggles and how it might fit into the larger structure below. 

 

MTU Weekend Ed - Cash Gap (12/16/22 Close)

This past week's drop nearly filled the early November gap in SPX.

MTU Weekend Ed - Pullback from resistance (12/9/22 close)

 

MTU Weekend Ed - Probing that resistance zone again (12/2/22 Close)

SPX is at its down trend line resistance and its previous resistance zone again, while the Dow once again closed its August high for a second week. 

 

There is no change in the interpretation of the larger structure - see last week's post.

SPX is potentially at the end of wave 1 or wave A up this year's low (or the very bearish wave C of an irregular flat which fails to exceed the August high), particularly if the resistance holds (blue).

If we see an immediate strong rally (from retirement program inflows, holiday seasonals, improving sentiment on interest rate outlook, etc) which allows SPX to break above the resistance, we may be looking at a 3rd wave up (green).