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Sunday, July 17, 2022
MTU Weekend Ed - May Low (7/15/22)
SPX closed above May low for the 3rd time, into a zone between the Jan low and the May low. How much time it spends in this zone will be telling.
There appears to be 5 waves down from Nov to March. Then a single(?) wave rally then another 5 wave down to May or June. Tho you could argue a slightly different count. The waves are distorted so the count is difficult.
In this type of situation you need to assess the larger deg waves back to 2009, 1982, 1932/42/49 and ask whether the Nov peak is a LT wave completion or not.
If this was an ABC from Nov such a seq would usually have a clear abc countertrend B wave but it appears to be missing. (Your comments on that MTU - re B waves ?). However the distortion issue clouds this point.
The "best" B wave may be the one marked in the Chart from C in Feb to X in Apr. It represents a lengthy (lasting longer than the first leg down and potentially longer than the second leg down) and moderate retrace of the first leg down. A potential larger degree profile has been highlighted in recent months, such as this one https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwWCwRuMHYYwnoW6gxtKFXb8cTow4luEyyYIGiFwWINoi0zS6vnyvLS0UqhAmVQJruZJUWEi01cn7YFZcJhxGcTH7xN_uA8-yVCsmrP_TNK4QfNjcLOALA35w0d3pufNkKK3CRPkFKXs8Q5X2tZotYB8du89KtuSdTYSNKmmxOwLqumzr9eksOfTvc/s850/SPX-20220708M.png
This is where you an I differ - your point C in Feb I would not classify as the end of a wave seq and start of of another. Nor would I think X in April is the end of a wave of that deg.
SPX Chart (& other indexes) -
ReplyDeleteThere appears to be 5 waves down from Nov to March. Then a single(?) wave rally then another 5 wave down to May or June. Tho you could argue a slightly different count. The waves are distorted so the count is difficult.
In this type of situation you need to assess the larger deg waves back to 2009, 1982, 1932/42/49 and ask whether the Nov peak is a LT wave completion or not.
If this was an ABC from Nov such a seq would usually have a clear abc countertrend B wave but it appears to be missing. (Your comments on that MTU - re B waves ?). However the distortion issue clouds this point.
The "best" B wave may be the one marked in the Chart from C in Feb to X in Apr. It represents a lengthy (lasting longer than the first leg down and potentially longer than the second leg down) and moderate retrace of the first leg down.
DeleteA potential larger degree profile has been highlighted in recent months, such as this one
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwWCwRuMHYYwnoW6gxtKFXb8cTow4luEyyYIGiFwWINoi0zS6vnyvLS0UqhAmVQJruZJUWEi01cn7YFZcJhxGcTH7xN_uA8-yVCsmrP_TNK4QfNjcLOALA35w0d3pufNkKK3CRPkFKXs8Q5X2tZotYB8du89KtuSdTYSNKmmxOwLqumzr9eksOfTvc/s850/SPX-20220708M.png
This is where you an I differ - your point C in Feb I would not classify as the end of a wave seq and start of of another. Nor would I think X in April is the end of a wave of that deg.
DeleteThe proof will be in the pudding soon.
Nice post thank you Quincy
ReplyDelete