In SPX, the decline from its ATH has been 3 waves so far.
Tracking counts relating to the large structure in SPX remains.
[Red] Wave B-up. May have ended - we've observed recently that there have been enough waves to complete the wave. If the top is in, it is better to count Wave B-up as a zigzag rather than a triple zigzag (See chart). A correction to the 2020 low or beyond is next.
[Red] Wave B-up. The current decline can be the end of an [x] wave in a triple zigzag. In this case, wave [y]-up of B-up is next.
[Blue] An impulse from the 2009 low. The current decline is wave [iv]-down of wave 5-up.
[Green] Wave 1 up from the 2020 low is you have a super bullish outlook. The current decline is wave [iv]-down of wave 1-up.
DJIA SPX NASDAQ etc...
ReplyDeleteRefer major stks patterns for EW count position would be advisable.
Mkt is 13 Fib yrs from 2009 low.
The problem with the green 1-2 count is the wave from 2018 to the 2020 low is 5 waves net down, not a 3 (a-b-c). So it discounts that possibility unless its distorted.
Main timing counts a patterns to me make the B wave scenario the most probable. Refer UKX.
The nature of the rally since March 2020 is not what we would see at the start of wave 3 of a 5 where runaway moves up are the norm. It has been weak and EW unreadable (a characteristic of countertrend waves). Many stks have traded sideways for over a year, and the only solid rally was to Aug 2020.
The UPSIDE VIEW is there are 5 waves on some indexes from 2009 to 2018 and some type of correction to 2020 and possible wave i of a wave 3 (of a 5) is visually shown.
Some type of correction is due from around here - if the main trend is up then the min correction is to the red W, and max to just above the 2007 top as MTU notes.