MTU Weekend Update - Marching toward Year End (10/29/21 close)

Tracking 

a potential small-degree fifth wave (green) with wave 1-5 equally just shy of 5000,

and a potential third zigzag (blue). 

 

MTU Weekend Ed - Fifth Wave (10/22/21 Close)

With the new high in SPX, the risks to the bearish view have materialized.  We observed on the 10/1/21 close: "How about risks to the bearish view? ... Therefore it is possible that the current decline is the last leg of a flag-like structure since the August high.   That structure would translate into a potential fourth wave (or another x wave) since the Oct 2020 low." Here is a picture. 

 

MTU Weekend Ed. - Wave B retrace (10/15/21)

Short term tracking counts (color coded)

MTU Weekend Ed - Consolidation (10/8/21 close)

SPX is likely consolidating ahead of another leg down.  The potential structures of the rebound are a triangle (marked),  flat (marked), or a larger B-up wave from the nominal low this past week  (not marked).  See chart. 

MTU Weekend Ed - Red October (10/1/21 close)

September not only delivered red candles in key U.S. stock benchmarks, but also saw index closes below the August lows. 

We have a three-wave advance since the March 2020 low, which has potentially concluded at the recent ATH.  If so, the subsequent correction of this advance is likely to be faster than the rise.  The 3725 area in SPX could represent meaningful support based on the price structure, but would imply a substantial decline from the high in percentage terms. 

How about risks to the bearish view?  Note that the Dow topped in August, a few weeks earlier than SPX.  Note that it is not easy or even possible to count a five-wave decline from the high yet.  Therefore it is possible that the current decline is the last leg of a flag-like structure since the August high.   That structure would translate into a potential fourth wave (or another x wave) since the Oct 2020 low.