Saturday, August 3, 2019
MTU Month-End Ed. - Megaphone (8/3/19)
Overthrow Territory (7/26/19) highlighted the 5th point of a potential megaphone pattern. This past week's selloff confirms that resistance held so far (if this is indeed a megaphone). If so, the traditional measured target for the megaphone is 2150-2350 in SPX.
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Re CHART 1 Bearish Count -
ReplyDeleteMathematical aspects to me indicate mkt is still in wave A, not at wave B. But MTU's B could still be valid as the waves are out of normal seq.
Re CHART 2 Bullish Count -
Given the heights of this index seen on a 30yr chart, under normal circumstances we would have rule out considering a bullish count completely. But if MT & LT trend is still up then best mkt can do in my assessment is large sideways gyrations for the next few years. If however mkt moves up convincing over the next 3-6 months we must consider bullish count is possibility.
If bullish count is valid then from 2009 low wave 1 is to Jan 2018 peak zone, with mkt now in wave A or B of wave 2 with wave 5 top target probably 3 decades away. This is if mega super cycle is running (this would tie in with Neely's 1988 forecast of DJIA 100,000 pts). But can the mkt do it without a proper correction of what looks like 5 waves from 1932-2018 ?
Mkt Man