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Sunday, March 3, 2019
MTU Month-End Ed - Resistance (3/1/19)
SPX is at prior resistance with an interesting weekly candle (Chart 1). Keep an eye on the bigger picture (Chart 2 and Chart 3).
Because indexes are a hybrid measure the cross current of components show a misleading wave structure at times like since 2009. You need to look at the average wave dates of the main stks in them to get it right.
Chart 2 Bullish Count - wave 1 will be the Jan 2018 for a MT EW count. This assumes 2009 low is a larger deg wave 4 from 1982. If it is wave 1 then sizable 3yr a-b-c correction is in progress to complete a future wave 2, then resumption of bull trend.
Chart 3 Bear Count - The Mid 2011 peak is the wave 1. Wave 2 is June or Oct 2012. Wave 3 is May 2015 and wave 4 is Feb 2016 and wave 5 is Jan 2018. All those measure up in relative proportions. If that 5 is the 5th from 1982 and or 1932 lows then MT to LT bear trend has just started.
The only thing that can throw out our std orthodox EW count is inversions of the wave structure.
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RE Charts 2 & 3 -
ReplyDeleteBecause indexes are a hybrid measure the cross current of components show a misleading wave structure at times like since 2009. You need to look at the average wave dates of the main stks in them to get it right.
Chart 2 Bullish Count - wave 1 will be the Jan 2018 for a MT EW count. This assumes 2009 low is a larger deg wave 4 from 1982. If it is wave 1 then sizable 3yr a-b-c correction is in progress to complete a future wave 2, then resumption of bull trend.
Chart 3 Bear Count - The Mid 2011 peak is the wave 1. Wave 2 is June or Oct 2012. Wave 3 is May 2015 and wave 4 is Feb 2016 and wave 5 is Jan 2018. All those measure up in relative proportions. If that 5 is the 5th from 1982 and or 1932 lows then MT to LT bear trend has just started.
The only thing that can throw out our std orthodox EW count is inversions of the wave structure.