MTU Weekend Ed. - Resistance III (2/21/19)

Nine weeks of advances.

MTU Weekend Ed. - Resistance II (2/15/19)

The 200-day SMA in SPX is now potential support.  This MA failed three times during the 2018Q4 decline.  The current rebound continue to face overhead resistance.

MTU Weekend Ed. - Resistance (2/8/19 close)

The advance in SPX since late Januarary has been accompanited by negative divergence and weaker momentum. SPX finally turned town at it's 200D SMA (Chart 1). The rebound since the December low is best tracked as a three-wave structure, which is consistent with a number of larger-degree structures since the all-time high (Chart 2).   An overlap with the green [i] in Chart 2 would increase the odds of a reversal.

Thursday Update (2/7/19)

SPX reacted to its 200-day SMA to the tick (Chart 1).   Interestingly,  ES reversed before invalidating a potential wave 3 or wave C (Chart 2 and Chart 3 blue).

Before:

After:

MTU Month-End Ed. - Rebound (2/1/19)

The rebound in SPX has now recovered a Fid-0.618 of the 2018Q4 decline. The structure of the rebound likely a three-wave structure so far (Chart 1 ES) and can be tracked as a counter-trend wave (X) or wave D of a diagonal (Chart 2 SPX).

Chart 3 and Chart 4 present our long-term bullish and bearish tracking discussed in the 2019 Outlook.