MTU Weekend Ed. - Monthly Outlook Update (9/30/16)

Stocks, Bonds, USD, Gold - key intermediate term scenarios to watch

Stocks
SPX has been attempting to break above its overhead resistance, with price action rhyming that over the previous breakout at a larger degree (Chart S1). Support and resistance is now only about 100 index points apart (Chart S1, two red lines).

While a short term breakout projects a target 60 index points higher based on a potential bullish inverse-HS setup (Chart S2 green), it takes no small amount of effort to break the overhead resistance. Other scenarios are also at play (Chart S2 gray or the 2nd & 3rd green C, for example).

Bonds
The 10Y yield index is retesting the neckline (Chart B1). If that line breaks, new lows in yields are in play for another go at the previous HS target.

USD
The USD index remains inside a two-year consolidation range (Chart $1). While many perceive U.S. growth and rate-hike expectations, as well as challenges in Europe and Japan to be supportive of the dollar, the USD index has been making lower highs and lower lows during its consolidation so far (Chart $1).  The chart presents our bullish and bearish tracking scenarios.

Gold
The price structure in Gold over the past 3 months is similar to that in the USD index over the past 2 years (Chart G1). Likewise, the jury is still out regarding the direction of the eventual breakout. The chart presents our bullish and bearish tracking scenarios.

Market Timing Update (9/30/16)

[1120am] SPX update-
Squiggles see chart.

Market Timing Update (9/29/16)

[230pm] SPX update-
Interesting possibility (one of the scenarios) -
If the Sep 27th low holds, today's low may conclude a terminal bullish triangle (the 2nd green C in Chart) and thus mark the end of the pullback from the Aug high. Quite fitting on the heels of the DB news.
If the Sep 27th low is breached but the early Sep low holds, the proposed bullish terminal triangle is then stretching in time (the 3rd green C in chart).
See chart.

[110pm] SPX update-
Short term bull & bear squiggles. See chart.

[1220pm] SPX update-
Bull & Bear Tracking. See chart.

Market Timing Update (9/28/16)

[235pm] SPX update-
A three-wave push has sent SPX back inside the ever-narrowing blue-line res/support range. See charts.

[1040am] SPX update-
Reactions at the blue line. See charts for squiggles and tracking.

Market Timing Update (9/27/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
SPX closed right under the blue line resistance (Chart 1), with two unfilled overhead gaps (Chart 2).

Market Timing Update (9/26/16)

[210pm] SPX update -
See chart for pre-debate squiggles. See Weekly Commentary for bigger picture discussion.

MTU Weekend Ed. - Key Juncture (9/23/16 close)

SPX has successfully retested the 2015/2016 breakout area, yet to make a new all-time high and is at potential short term resistance (Chart 1). Meanwhile, NDX has made fresh all-time highs and has satisfied the minimum requirement of a top (Chart 2 and Chart 3) barring extension (Chart 3 green text).

One way to reconcile the two is to note that SPX is at an interesting juncture with respect to both the bullish and bearish scenarios (Chart 4).

[Bullish Scenario-Green] The pullback from the August high ended mid- or late-September as marked. Friday's pullback is likely a small degree 2nd wave (or 4th wave). A gap open above the resistance will not be surprising if a small degree 3rd wave up is next.

[Bearish Scenario-Blue] The mid- or late-September low marked the first ABC-decline from the August high in SPX. Wave X or Wave D has ended at this past week's high if we count from the mid-September low. Wave X has one more advance to complete if we count from the late September low. The coming decline can be viewed as wave C-down of a flat from the August high. If so, the decline can potentially be as significant as the August 2015 and January 2016 sell-off.

Key support in SPX is currently around 2080 and key resistance is around 2165.

Market Timing Update (9/23/16)

[245pm] SPX update-
This is an interesting squeeze on SPX by the blue lines (Chart 1).

Market Timing Update (9/22/16)

[1020am] NDX update -
New highs in NDX in recent days. Tracking counts since the Feb low. See charts.

[750am] ES update -
Bull/Bear tracking from the ATH. See chart.

Market Timing Update (9/21/16)

[EOD] Stocks-
SPX fills a gap, reaches the Fib-618 retrace, closed at/above the nearest overhead resistance line (Chart 1) on the post-FOMC rally. Chart 2 tracks a new upswing(green) and a rebound (blue).

[255pm] SPX update-
Wicked batch of potential triangles, including diagonal triangles. See charts.

[1025am] SPX update-
Pre-FOMC squiggles and tracking counts. See charts.

Market Timing Update (9/20/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
Still a bunch of potential bullish and bearish triangles (Chart 1) and continued struggle with emerging resistance (Chart 2).

[110pm] SPX update -
Squiggles and tracking counts. Potential triangles. See charts.

Market Timing Update (9/19/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
NDX makes a new high and SPX struggles with emerging resistance, ahead of the Fed decisions. See Chart.

[110pm] SPX update -
Squiggles and tracking counts. See charts.