With slightly more than half of 2016 completed, the breakout in SPX in July allows us to track the following three scenarios (Chart 1).
[very bullish - green] A proper impulse wave from the Feb low is developing. Wave 3 is currently in progress and may extend.
[somewhat bullish - blue] A proper impulse wave from the Feb low is completing. Wave 5 is currently maturing (Chart 2). The advance from the Feb low could be just wave 1 of a larger impulse wave or could be the entire upswing.
[very bearish - read] The upswing from the Feb low is actually a three-wave structure. Its wave B is an expanding triangle. The post-triangle thrust, wave C, is maturing (Chart 2).