Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Market Timing Update (6/28/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
SPX closed above its MA200 again, filled an overhead gap, and produced a bullish candle. See Chart 1.

If the low is in, the green [w]-[x]-[y] tracks it. The next upswing could be a third wave up. At the moment, a retest of the low/pull back looks probable under this interpretation.

From a bearish perspective, last Friday and today both saw a strong single-day rebound, both are zigzags/threes, and the bond market did not participate in today's recovery. So keep an eye on this LDT/EDT in ES if the post Brexit low is to be breached. See Chart 2.

[220pm] SPX update-
The rebound in SPX stalled at the ES trend line resistance (see 915am update) as well as cash MA200. Let's see if SPX can close above its MA200 (around 2021) and even close the overhead gap. See chart.

[915am] ES update-
ES rebounds after completing a structure, now at near term resistance which was previous support. See chart.