Stocks, Bonds, USD, Gold - key intermediate term scenarios to watch
In contrast to the rebound from the Sep/Oct low in stocks, the rebound from the November low has been led by small-to-mid-cap stocks, which is (near term) bullish (Chart S1).
However, if the rebound from the November low is the green wave 5 in Chart S2, this wave 5 has the potential to fail or to extend (See Extension or Truncation (11/20/15)).
Even in the case of an extension, the squiggle counts in Chart S3 suggest that the green wave [ii]-down of wave 5-up or the red wave [x]-down have room for one more pullback. This would be consistent with the implication of a small-degree impulse-wave decline in SP500 emini futures (Chart S4).
Chart S5 updates the scenarios where the proposed wave  off the 2009 low or the 2010 low is over (green) or not (blue and red).
10-year U.S. Treasury yield has retreated from the right shoulder of a potential head-and-shoulders pattern (Chart B1) and is now retesting the gray break out line. Logical initial targets are around 2.5% or 1.95%, depending on whether the retest succeeds or fail. There has been little change in the long-term profile of yields (Chart B2)
The USD index is forming a potential ending diagonal triangle (Chart $1). Unless a green wave [v] is already underway (which appears less likely), the potential EDT suggests at least a pullback. The initial target would be slightly below the 99 level.
Gold prices fell to a new bear-market low over the past month, as suspected. Based on Gold's price actions, the likelihood of a 3-year EDT has meaningfully increased (Chart G1, green). Under this interpretation, we expect gold to rebound in a small degree (b)-wave, followed by a small-degree (c)-wave decline to a lower low above $956.20 to finish off this potential EDT.