Sunday, April 26, 2015

MTU Weekend Ed. - New High, but ... (4/24/15 close)

The April 17th pullback to 2072.37 in SP500 did turn out to be a terminal decline in a corrective pullback (see Breakout Failure, minor or major? (4/17/15)), as SP500 and Nasdaq indexes joined SP400, Russell2000 and Wilshire5000 to make new 2015 highs (Chart 1).

While SP500 poked slightly above its multi-month range (Chart 2), upside momentum and market internals since the April 17th low have been unimpressive. See Chart 3 and Chart 4.

Thus we monitor the possibility the post April 17th upswing is
[1] a maturing initial wave, e.g., as wave [1] of the blue c in Chart 1. Expect a small pullback to correct the advance since 2072.37. OR
[2] a terminal wave, e.g., as the entire blue c in Chart 1. Expect a sizable decline to at least test the lower end of the multi-month range. On the bullish side, a convincing upward gap away from the multi-month range would serve as confirmation for a true break out.