Saturday, January 10, 2015

MTU Weekend Ed. - What if wave three ended a year ago? (1/9/15 close)

We observed in 2005 Outlook (1/2/15) that “without a bullish or bearish prior disposition, odds appear to favor a full five-wave run off the 2009 low, perhaps enabling Nasdaq indexes to exceed their Y2K peaks.” We explore the possibility that either wave four or wave five of the proposed five-wave advance is already in progress.

Under this interpretation, the two year wave [3] advance since the 2009 low in U.S. stocks likely ended at the beginning 2014, having consumed about the same amount of time as the wave [1] advance. See Chart 1 for the proposed wave count on SP500.

The wave [4] correction in SP500 either ended in October taking the form of a flat or requires one more sell-off to complete a skewed triangle.

If wave [4] ended in October, wave [1]/ [5] equality projects to 2500-2600. The green arrow in Chart 1 illustrates this scenario. Wave (1)-up of wave [5] likely has completed recently.

If wave [4] requires another sell-off to complete, the October low is likely to hold for SP500 according to the structure of a skewed triangle. The blue arrows in Chart 1 illustrate this scenario. However, Russell2000 like is tracing out an expanded triangle in this case and its October low is likely vulnerable. See Chart 2. This scenario would respond to the year-long bearish divergences between technical indicators and price as well as accommodate the bullish decennial pattern and the presidential cycle.