Saturday, June 7, 2014

MTU Weekend Ed. - Proper Overthrow (6/6/14)

The overthrow projected by the proposed ending diagonal triangle in SP500 (Chart 1) finally arrived this past week. See recent weekly commentaries for additional discussion.

We look for stocks to roll over and a retest of the prior breakout area around 1600 appears likely (Chart 2). A corrective decline and a successful retest is likely a fourth wave under the bullish interpretation (see Chart 3 of Monthly Outlook Update (5/30/14)), while a failed retest is likely to track the bearish wave counts in Chart 2.

At the moment, VIX dropped to a 10-handle while realized volatility is in the single digits. If history is a guide, neither vol is likely stay at these levels for long and only the magnitude of the pullback is uncertain.

For the near term, consider the following price points on SP500, assuming the ending diagonal triangle in play. See Chart 3.

[1] Wave (c) of [e] has already reached equality with wave (a) of [e].
[2] Wave [e] has a ceiling around 1975 based on the EDT pattern.
[3] A potential inverse head-and-shoulders pattern projects to around 1985.
[4] Squiggle tracking suggests wave (c) of [e] is mature. See Chart 4.

Selling opportunities are emerging. If the proposed ending diagonal in SP500 is in play, the market is likely to roll over quickly.  Otherwise, the early July is likely a time window for a meaningful pivot.