Saturday, May 24, 2014

MTU Weekend Ed. - Selling Oppornity Likely Approaching (5/23/14)

As observed in Selling Opportunity or Bear Trap (5/16/14), the weakness following the false breakout of SP500 to 1902.17 on 5/13/14 indeed turned out to be a bear trap. This past week, stocks are making another attempt to make history, with SP500 coming within a single index point (1901.26) from a new high and the Dow Transports making a record high.

Potential selling opportunities are likely approaching. While bearish confirmations are absent, the downside potential is likely meaningful and attractive from a risk reward perspective.

Transports likely topping
Since its 2014 low, the Dow Transport Average may be tracing out two ending diagonal triangles at two wave degrees, as illustrated by the blue trend lines and red trend lines in Chart 1.

Chart 2 shows how near term development in Transports fit into the larger picture since the 2009 bottom. Several tracking counts place the transports at topping areas for a meaningful pullback. For example:

[1] a pullback to the base of the small EDT around 7521.18 is 6%
[2] a pullback towards 7009.98 associated with the bullish blue/pink count represents a 12% correction
[3] a pullback towards 6237.14 associated with the bullish blue count represents a 22% correction
[4] the bearish red count suggests a substantially deeper decline.

SP500 likely next 
SP500 is also poised to complete the overthrow of a potential ending diagonal triangle (Chart 3 and Chart 4).  Naturally, the upswing needs to finish its course.  However, transports could lead the pullback the same way as they had led the rally.

Tech and small caps
Tech (Chart 5) and small caps (Chart 6) show upside potential both in time and price, as observed last week. At the same time, one needs to monitor the potential for either a failed 5th wave rally or having topped in Q1 as these indexes have been lagging the general market.