Sunday, March 23, 2014

MTU Weekend Ed. - Posturing, T-(n-2) weeks (3/21/14)

SP500 and SP400 made marginal all-time-highs at a quadruple witching session Friday.   The new highs were unconfirmed by other indexes. The speculated overthrow appears to be on track (Chart 1, blue).

Chart 2 shows an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that points to 1910 in SP500, if Friday’s retest of the breakout turns out to be successful. Near term tracking counts offer several scenarios (Chart 2), including one that threatens the March low.

[green] Wave C-up began at the March low, which could morph into an ending diagonal triangle, especially when there are just a few weeks left to a potential “timed top”.

[red] Wave B-down is a multi-week triangle. Friday’s downswing was the first retrace of wave C-up.

[blue] Wave B-down is an expanded flat, which is still incomplete. Interestingly, there is a cluster of potential support around 1830 to 1835, including the 50-day moving average. It’s also possible for Wave B-down to morph into a sideways triangle if support turns out to be strong.