Sunday, December 29, 2013

MTU Weekend Ed. - 2014 Outlook (12/27/13 close)

We expect U.S. stocks to pullback in price or/and in time.

SP500 is approaching a major peak based on all three of our tracking counts (Chart 1). Specifically, the anticipated top tracks as wave [D] of an expanding triangle since the Y2K top, or wave [B] of a complex-three since the Y2K top, or wave (3) of a bullish wave [5] advance since the 2009 low. In each of these scenarios, the subsequent pullback corrects the advance since at least the 2011 low around 1100.

From a fundamental perspective, the pullback in stocks could be triggered by unexpected inflation or unexpected downward pressure on the economy. Interestingly, these potential fundamental triggers offer different outlooks on bonds, the USD and gold. With unexpected inflation, one would expect higher yields, lower USD, and higher gold prices. With another recession, one would expect bonds and USD to rally and gold be pressured by USD strength.

The risk to our view is that U.S. stocks continue to rally throughout 2014.  We interpret this scenario as an extension of the current investor mindset and thus a delay of the scenarios discussed above. In this case, bonds and USD are likely to remain range bound.

Chart 2 to Chart 4 present the long term technical profile of 10Y US Treasury yields, the USD index and gold priced in USD.