Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Market Timing Update (9/24/13)

[EOD]Stocks update -
Intriguing market development.

[1] The new high in RUT presents a potential expanded flat correction and thus potential subsequent bullish extension (Chart 1). If so, the weakness in other indexes would be associated with a small degree C wave (Chart 2 SPX). At a larger degree, the pullback from the September high would be (1) wave D of and EDT (Chart 2 blue lines), (2) wave E of a skewed triangle since the May high (not shown), (3) wave 2 with respect to early September lows.The bearish alternative is naturally a major top at the September high.

[2] SPX is again testing the prior neckline, which presents potential support. However, a potential HS is forming, pointing to a target around 1660 (Chart 2) at the same time.  Let's see which way the market is heading. 

[1230pm]SPX/RUT update -
A visual five wave decline in SPX, not confirmed by Nasdaq and small-cap indexes (and mid-caps to some extent). RUT appears to be making new highs. See charts.

[815am]ES update -
Tracking a five-down, a seven-down or an unfinished five-down with an extended third wave. See charts.